US Open Semifinals preview & predictions:
The 2016 US Open semifinals are upon us and the stakes couldn’t be higher for world no.1 Djokovic to prove that he is back as he was “handed” yet another walk over/retire match as Tsonga was suffering from a knee injury and had to retire in the second set. His opponent here in the semis Gael Monfils put on a huge upset 3-0 win over Loucas Pouille who had knocked out Rafael Nadal in the previous round. Both the Monfils match and what proved to be the best match of the quarters (namely Wawrinka vs Del Potro) showed us a valuable point to consider when betting on these matches; fatigue.
Pouille lacked energy in his game and wasn’t as fast as he usually is which meant that Monfils could simply lob the ball over him when they met close to the net. In the Del Potro vs Wawrinka match Del Potro got the upper hand early but Wawrinka managed to win momentum and reach his unstoppable style where he can rival anyone. Stanislas managed to utilize Del Potro’s weak backhand to win easy points and as Del Potro tried to counter with slicing the ball back to recover his position he had to run quite a lot. After loosing the third set to Wawrinka it was clearly showing that Del Potro was tired in his legs and that in conjunction with loss of momentum gave Wawrinka his first impressive victory of the tournament.
Now there was one more major event that occurred in the quarters, Kei Nishikori managed to beat the world no.2 (and possibly currently the best player in the world) Andy Murray in 5 sets with 1-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 7-5. This match showcased one of the biggest factors to look at when live betting on tennis; Momentum. Murray started of the match by winning 5 straight games, ending the first set with 1-6. However the second set had multiple rain delays and while the match was paused Nishikori had the time to reset and regain his momentum. The break of the second set showed us yet another important factor to look at; focus. Murray was down 4-5 serving for the tie as he lost his focus and threw away the game. Andy regained it quickly though and was up 2-1 heading into the fourth set when yet another misfortunate event happened; The set was tied at 1-1 with Murray at break point as the umpire made the decision to replay the point due to the loud crowd. After this Murray completely lost his focus and Kei went on to win the set 6-1 and the next one 7-5.
US Open Semifinals predictions:
Now we mentioned three important things to think about from the quarterfinals and those were focus, momentum and fatigue. Three things that doesn’t directly correlate to skill but they are key when predicting matches in grand slams like the 2016 US Open. Playing up to five sets every day for a week is something that can and will take a toll on both the body and the mind of the players.
Novak Djokovic vs Gael Monfils prediction:
This should prove to be a very though fixture for the Frenchman Monfils as he has faced Djokovic 12 times prior to this one, a head to head which Djokovic leads with 12 to 0. This will be Monfils first grand slam semifinal in his 12 years of pro action, something which is sure to contribute to his spirit for this match. Though even if Monfils is close to the grand slam final benchmark, this looks like an easy victory for Djokovic. With Federer injured and Murray out in the quarters all of his greatest rivals are out and with that in mind it’s almost certain that Djokovic will have his mindset on winning yet another title. In addition to having won all of their previous meetings and being the superior player Djokovic will have the fatigue advantage as he have only played two full matches so far in the tournament, in fact he has only played 10 sets in total. Compare that to Monfils 15 sets and you get quite a clear picture of who will have the most energy for the match.
Fact: Monfils did actually managed to beat Djokovic back in 2004, but in a futures match
The viking’s prediction for this match is a victory for Novak Djokovic, however the odds on him are at the correct value. We suggest that you consider a small unit play on Gael Monfils on the off chance that he wants to add a potential grand slam title to his legacy of being one of the most entertaining tennis players in history with his trick shots and energy. The picks that makes the most sense is the over 35.5 games pick (has a chance to hit even at 3 sets) and the over 3.5 sets pick as Djokovic injured wrist rumors (prior to the tournament) and Monfils potential legacy win must be taken into account here.
Bet on our recommended picks here:
Over 35.5 games @ 1.15
Over 35.5 games win @ -750
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Kei Nishikori prediction:
This is probably one of the hardest matches to predict of the tournament as Stan Wawrinka holds the upper hand in terms of pure skill and strategy. Though Nishikori isn’t far behind and he has looked way better than Wawrinka in the tournament so far. The duo has a head to head record of 3-2 in favor of “Stan the man” but Nishikori won their most recent fixture with 7-6, 6-1 at the quarters of the Canadian Masters two months ago.
We doubted Stan at the quarters due to his very lackluster performance in the first rounds but he proved that with his ability to strategize and use the court to his advantage he can be unstoppable. This is also Stans greatest strength as he’s able to get his opponent in a really bad position and then use his great play to take easy points, pair this with a strong serve and overall great skill. However being a very aggressive player Stan is prone to make mistakes at times and his results usually correlate to his momentum which often makes him drop focus and throw away points or makes him absolutely dominate the very elite of the tennis world.
Kei Nishikori has a bit similar play style to Wawrinka and is an aggressive player himself, however he utilizes speed to get into great positions and finish off his opponents. Nishikori has shown this tournament that he can handle a wide variety of skill sets; defeating Karlovic in straight sets and overcoming Murray, two very different players.
The key point for this match will be momentum, Nishikori will need to make a few smart plays to get Stan to drop his momentum and then get him into tilting mode. Stan on the other hand could out strategize Nishikori and make him run to much in the opening sets. The viking’s prediction for this match is a victory for Wawrinka as he will have his fire back after defeating Del Potro, Stan frequently put his finger against his head to show Del Potro that he can’t get into his head and drop his momentum. After making that clear statement and then living up to it Stan is sure to have his spirits and focus at high levels. We value both winner selections at about even odds. This means that there is positive value in betting on Stanislas which in turn means that it’s a very good bet in statistical terms.
Bet on our recommended picks here:
Stanislas Wawrinka to win @ 2.15
Stanislas Wawrinka to win @ +120